Hispanics to become state majority by 2014

Over the next 50 years the number of Hispanics living in Tulare County will double to more than 548,000 people, the California Department of Finance said Thursday.

By 2060, the population of Tulare County is projected to be 836,850, nearly double the 2010 population of 443,066.

The state Finance Department also projects Hispanics will become the largest ethnic group in the nation’s most populous state early next year, marking a big milestone in a long-running demographic shift that has already deeply altered the political balance of power, the economy and culture.

The state reported during the next 50 years, the number of whites living in Tulare County will grow by just 54 percent to 224,976.

The prediction Hispanics will equal the number of whites in California by the middle of this year and surpass them in early 2014 was disclosed in Gov. Jerry Brown’s budget proposal in early January, but the latest numbers offer a far more detailed portrait of how the shift will unfold across age groups and geographic regions during the next five decades. Whites and Hispanics each currently represent 39 percent of the state’s population.

In 2020, Hispanics will account for 40.7 percent of the population and whites will make up 36.6 percent. In 2030, the population will be 43.9 percent Hispanic and 34.1 percent white.

In Tulare County, Hispanics will make up 62 percent of the population compared to 30 percent white by 2060.

In 2060, Hispanics will make up 48 percent of the state population, compared to 30 percent white.

Statewide, blacks are expected to slip from nearly 6 percent in 2010 to just more than 4 percent by 2060, while the Asian population, now just below 13 percent, may grow slightly.

California becomes only the nation’s second state after New Mexico where Hispanics make up the largest racial or ethnic group. Whites currently lack a majority in only two states — Hawaii and New Mexico.

The Finance Department also projects an aging of the state’s population with those over 65 years old projected to make up 23 percent of the total population by 2060, compared to that group comprising just 11 percent of the state’s residents today.

In Tulare County, those 65 and older, now just 9 percent of the total, will swell to 157,484, or 19 percent of the county’s population.

The biggest growth will be in the county’s workforce aged residents — those 25 to 64. The state projects that age group will grow from 209,219 to 422,322 people.

In 2010, Hispanics were a majority in nine of California’s 58 counties; by 2060, that could grow to 17, the department reported. Bill Schooling, chief of the department’s demographic research unit, said counties with a strong Hispanic presence — like San Bernardino, Riverside and Kern, near Los Angeles — will be much younger than parts of Northern California and other remote areas.

The demographic trends show that California, like other states, will see its median age increase from the current 35 to 42 in 2060 but still be relatively young, thanks largely to Hispanics.

In 2030, there will be 9.6 million Hispanics in the prime working ages of 25 to 64, while whites will account for 7.2 million. By 2060, Hispanics will be the largest group from 25 to 64 by a wide margin — 12.1 million compared to 7.4 million whites.

“Due to California’s diversity and because of its role as the primary gateway state for immigration, California will not age as rapidly in the coming 20 years as many other states,” the report said.

California’s population is expected to hit 50 million in 2049, from about 38 million today, led by steady growth in Southern California. The percentage of women in the state will continue to slightly outnumber the percentage of men, due to longer female life expectancies.

The report relied on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Public Health vital statistics and surveys of county planning experts and regional government councils.